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Dee Yun Dee Yun: (contact-deleteme[at]-deleteme-direman [dot] com) 2009-02-02 10:21:30

Probability Matrix


As long as you can couch a particular event in logically sensible terms, no matter how improbable, it's technically possible. I remember rolling at least six (guys, was it even higher?) consecutive 20s on a D20. That's a ridiculously unlikely 1:64 million odds. Greatly unlikelier events happen around us all the time. Silly dice can be a fun way to represent them.

I was chatting with a theoretical physicist about mind-boggling concepts like spacetime and string theory, and I clearly wasn't capable of keeping up with his explanations, because he referred me to this vid for people clearly not capable of keeping up with theoretical physicists' explanations:

The best part of this conversation was when it led to a discussion of what he's currently working on. Suddenly, this calm and rational man transformed into an avatar of apoplexy, screaming, "FUCKING FRENCH!" He was apparently experiencing some sort of political conflict with a French colleague. I found it immensely comforting that the cold and clinical world of physics was rendered recognizable by the pervasive perfidy of humanity.


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Dee Yun Dee Yun: (contact-deleteme[at]-deleteme-direman [dot] com) 2009-02-01 00:51:09

Diplomacy - Spring 1908


Play the home version by following these forum threads!

England is now trapped in Portugal, completely surrounded by German forces. This was a pretty dick move on my (German) part, because I'd been using that British fleet to spearhead my own eventual progress, but I decided to try to end the game by the next turn.

France moved into the Western Mediterranean, presumably as a desperate flail at Tunisia. Turkey beat them to it, so France is facing elimination, as their only supply center in Spain is about to flip to German control. It's conceivable that England and France could cooperate to survive, but given their past interaction, I assess this outcome as highly improbable. Nevertheless, stranger moves have already come to pass in this game.

Italy kept it simple and used their two units to safeguard their two remaining home centers. They'll lose Tunisia next turn, and it's unlikely that they'll reverse their losses.

Austria continues to get chewed on by Turkey. Austria is the primary force preventing German victory, but if Turkish aggression continues, Austria will at some point have to look to its own defenses. [Note: this is the same exact entry for Austria as last turn.]

Turkey continues to move on Austria. Any further, and they'll allow Germany to easily crack the Austrian lines.

Russia Yep - still hanging around in Moscow.

Germany is oh so close to victory, and I decided to shoot for it this coming turn. However, this was probably my weakest turn as Germany. Instead of fully committing to a win next turn, I sort of hedged my bet against it backfiring on me. I should've fully committed or planned for a victory in three turns, but I think I ended up with an indecisive compromise of the two. Oh well; I still figure I have a 40% chance of taking it on Wednesday, and I very much want to finish this game and get some new blood into the next one.

Anyone who would like to join the next game should sign up now. There's a thread in the GAMES forum where you can submit yourself for consideration. I'm sorry to say that anyone who keeps in regular contact with me personally has a better shot at one of the player slots. I know some of our readership has expressed an interest, but this game is something of a chore (I don't even get to play unless someone drops out), and I need to know that each participant is fully committed to playing to the bitter end. If you can convince me that you'll be trying to win, and that you won't be missing turns, I'll definitely consider you for a spot at the table.

[Note: It's almost too dark to see, but there is a German fleet in the Barents Sea.]

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