Odds of Victory

The third royal rumble was conquered by Dee (Austria)

Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Wed May 13, 2009 2:33 am

Edited for new French player!

What's makes a good game even better? Betting on lines, of course! Here are the current odds of victory based on my arcane formulas and secret analysis. The odds will be updated each turn.

England- 3:1
An experienced player with a strong defensive position that has a lack of expansion options. Can Vargas be given a clean slate after the drama of last game? England must garner the trust of either France or Germany to stake a claim on the continent. Finally, the possibility of Russian aggression in the north must be taken into account.

France- 6:1
Thanks to Danny for stepping into a difficult situation! France begins in an awkward situation of being behind in negotiations, but having the benefit of seeing what his neighbors are thinking. They do have the defensive position and short term growth that can save them, but will Danny, a newbie to this shark tank, find meaningful partners in such a short time?

Germany- 5:2
Steve joins this game wielding one of the most flexible and option loaded powers on the board. An experienced player who excels at tactical maneuvers, Germany provides Steve with many opening options. Will Germany ally with the unknown of France or the more familiar quantity of England to resolve the Western triangle?

Italy- 6:1
Italy has the worst win and survival rate of any of the powers in Diplomacy statistics. Sorry Bill, you drew the short straw. Bill has one game under his belt, but his poor showing last game lowers the odds. Italy’s chances rise dramatically if France or Austria has an early collapse. May you put up a good fight!

Austria- 2:1
Dee rejoins the fray after GMing the last game controlling a high risk/high reward power. Austria has a high early death rate, but if she survives the opening gambit, she also has a high win and survival rate. This will test Dee’s diplomatic skills, but he has a proven record of solid play attested by his joint win in game 1 with Paul.

Turkey- 4:1
Mike inherits the strongest defensive position of any power. Turkey also has good expansion options, but requires imagination to expand quickly as trigger happy Austria and bipolar Russia will make formidable foes (or allies). Also, an entrepreneurial Italy may become a sudden challenger for the Med. Mike’s odds would be greater if not for his poor showings in previous games.

Russia- 4:1
Russia plays like two smaller powers and its bipolar character makes it difficult to wield. However, they enjoy many expansion options and can meddle in the western and eastern theaters. Linda will quickly become the arbiter of many wars and can demand significant concession for the aid of the Mighty Bear. Can she make her rivals entangle in deadlocks with each other while setting up for a steamroller attack from her edge board position?
Last edited by weather wizard on Fri May 15, 2009 3:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby Kodi on Wed May 13, 2009 6:24 pm

A thousand on Fancy-Dancy Magic-Prancy!
-Kodi
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Fri May 15, 2009 4:00 am

1000 on Vargas it is!
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Fri May 15, 2009 11:18 pm

Update Spring 1901

England- 5:1
Odds turned strongly against England with a perplexing opening and blatant Russian aggression for which England is not properly aligned to fight. Also, England is staring at zero builds. Not good.

France- 6:1
No real change as Danny is in a hole. However, this turn will reveal who his friends and enemies are.

Germany- 5:2
No real change. Germany did not reveal their hand yet.

Italy- 11:2
A favorable turn as Austria turns away. However, Italy is picking a fight with the most difficult opponent available. Odds turn slightly favorable only cause Italy starts in such a bad position and now is just less horrible.

Austria- 2:1
No significant changes. Austria’s odds depend heavily on how fast he can resolve the Balkans.

Turkey- 4:1
No real change. Turkey’s odds also depend heavily on the Balkan conflict.

Russia- 3:1
Significant improvement to win as Russia attacks where the enemy is the weakest. She has some momentum and will gain up to 3 builds if everything goes well. A quick seizure of Scandinavia will make her powerful, but also a target. The southern front remains well in question with Turkey and Austria both undoubtedly clamoring for her support. It’s nice to be wanted!
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Sun May 17, 2009 11:12 pm

Updated Fall 1901

England 5:1
No change as position and momentum remain unfavorable to England’s fortunes. England still does not have any reasonable prospects for expansion and now will face a new German fleet.

France 5:1
Odds improve as France has survived imminent conquest. England has backed off and Italy can be fended off with relative ease. The real threat will be the massive military buildup of the Second Reich.

Germany 2:1
Odds improve as Germany builds 3 units and does not face imminent invasion on any front. Someone around Germany will be on the wrong end of a 4 unit assault very soon! One strategic concern that must be addressed is the swift Russification of Scandinavia. Politically, Germany must also concern itself with being too big too quickly.

Italy 6:1
Odds decrease slightly as Italy faces with an uphill battle on France now made more difficult as the English reconsider their aggression on France. Also, Turkey and Austria have built fleets to challenge for Med control vital to Italian interests.

Austria 5:2
Odds decrease as the Balkan gambit went awry. Every turn Austria does not resolve this conflict decreases their chance of survival, let alone victory. The new fleet in TRI is a significant gamble akin to doubling down while in a cold streak.

Turkey 7:2
Odds improve as the Turks got their fleet into the Med, held onto BUL, and at least got neutrality from Russia. The next phase of politics will be crucial to secure an ally rather than just a neutral neighbor as expansion options look limited.

Russia 7:2
Odds decrease as momentum has been lost in the North and a puzzling retreat executed in the south. Russia will now need German cooperation in the north and may have lost her claim to RUM. In this shark pit, there are no neutrals and Russia must pick her allies soon or lose all potential suitors.
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Fri May 22, 2009 8:14 pm

Spring 1902

England 4:1
An excellent turn has given Vargas a fight chance. His political acumen will be tested to secure his recent gain of a SC and position. A successful defense of DEN along with French cooperation will boost England into the pole position in the West.

France 6:1
MAR is about to fall, Germany is on sacred soil, and political options look meager. Danny's odds drop from a weak turn as he scattered his units leaving them unable to support each other. Even worse, his fate is now in the hands of others. Start begging!

Germany 3:1
Still quite powerful in resources, Germany had a perplexing turn where he got too cute. Germany's odds drop due to the lack of political allies in the West. It is imperative that he settles a peace with England and hits France or vice versa. However, prospects of diplomatic breakthrough seem uncertain with last turn's maneuvers.

Italy 11:2
Odds improve slightly as France's southern door can be bashed down. However, the Turks must be dealt with soon. The military option will water his offensive, but the political option require nerves of steel.

Austria 2:1
Back in the leader slot as Russia turns back to his loving embrace. If I actually believed Russia would stay loyal, Austrian odds to win would be even money. Once again, the entire bet rides on the skittish Bear.

Turkey 4:1
Down a notch as Russia changed sides. But Corse does have commanding position on the Med. If Russia can be turned, Turkey’s fortunes will rise immensely.

Russia 5:1
Down significantly not from any military reversals, but from hemming herself into a corner. While survival is most assured, this is a game where you play to win, not to linger. Russian political position is also precarious as she plays both sides of the Anchluss fence. Expansion room has become limited and contingent upon her current allies’ successes, not her own.
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Tue May 26, 2009 6:14 pm

Updated with Fall 1902

England 3:1
Vargas held DEN and more importantly, held on to his political alliances with Russia and France. While another supply center gain is not immediate, he has Germany on the defensive. Odds improve.

France 8:1
After surviving imminent collapse early on, France made a couple of poor march orders coupled with an inability to properly coordinate and cooperate with Germany. MAR will soon be Italian and PAR may be German. However, with the new army in PAR, Danny can make life miserable for Germany. Still, the prospects of victory now look very bleak.

Germany 9:2
Big drop in chance to win as political options are now limited to Austria and a rabbit out of a hat. Germany must flip someone else to his side soon or will face a 3 front war. The Rommel-esque manuever in France does give hope that PAR will be serving bratwurst in the fall.

Italy 11:2
No change as Italy did not seize MAR and sacrificed momentum in Iberia in exchange for home defense. Italian odds did not decrease only because they do not face imminent invasion anywhere and actually have some time. However, the lost year will be sorely missed as a race develops between Italy and Austria to dominate the Med.

Austria 2:1
Net change to odds is zero: Balkan victory improves odds, but the prospect of a collapsing Germany lowers odds. I admit I am a follower of the Anchluss theory of Austria and Germany, but I have never seen either country win without the other at least being viable to mid game. With all the wackiness of this game, perhaps an exception to the theory will be shown.

Turkey 10:1
Mike played a good game. His imminent collapse does not do justice to how much he actually tried. If Joel and I got this level of participation last game, one of us would not have made it out of the early game. Now that victory is all but impossible, the Turks will make Austria or Russia regret they attacked him.

Russia 9:2
Slight improvement only due to gaining 2 supply centers. Normally, a 2 center gain in one turn is huge, but Russia now must do what it does not like to do: spearhead an attack. A full offensive into Germany, coupled with his western front may bring a swift end to Germany and make Linda the unquestioned giant of the board. This also will put strain on the Russo-Austrian relationship and may cause unintended consequences.
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Fri May 29, 2009 8:13 am

Spring 1903

England 5:2
Odds improve with expansion room and a lack of hostile neighbors, other than France, who is being dissected as we speak. Don't get cute Vargas and maintain your roll!

France 100:1
Basically dead now with the homeland lost. Iberia will be annoying to crack if Danny decided it to be.

Germany 4:1
A good outlook considering the Russian invasion. Paris can provide a new build and create a defensive stalemate. Also the temporary cease fire with England for the French turkey buys a little time. However, Germany has no expansion options.

Italy 5:1
Odds improve as Marseilles falls, but Bill is taking too long. Iberia may be heavily contested if France makes a stand. Expansion routes are growing limited.

Austria 3:2
Even a better outlook than before as Turkey crumbles and no other powers threaten his borders. Options abound for the Dual Monarchy with the promise of a secured corner position.

Turkey 100:1
Like France, hopeless short of a miraculous stab by Austria or Russia.

Russia 4:1
Odds improve with the collapse of Turkey. Linda will need another unit to outflank Germany but must press the issue as a stalemate will make her other neighbors trigger happy. However, sending another unit into the German front may weaken her flanks inviting stabby behavior.
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:04 pm

Fall 1903

France and Turkey removed from the board. No further bets will be taken on them.

England 5:2
No change as expansion remains on schedule and hostile fronts are easily manageable. Cooperation with Germany will determine how fast Scandinavia falls.

Germany 4:1
No change as well without an easy way to break out of the defensive posture. However, the Russian retreat has given Germany time to reorganize his force deployment and even possibly regain the initiative.

Italy 10:1
Barring foreign intervention, Italy is doomed.

Austria 1:1
Odds improve further with one campaign wrapping up and another begun with a critical stab. Austria has all the momentum into the Italian peninsula and will gut it, barring foreign intervention.

Russia 9:2
Odds decline as a new front has opened up and initiative was ceded to her enemies. Expansion room is all but gone as well. Russia also must concern the future of Austria as he grows ever fatter without any serious impediment.
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Re: Odds of Victory

Postby weather wizard on Fri Jun 05, 2009 6:44 am

Spring 1904

No longer accepting bets for Italy.

England 5:2
No change as Vargas rides the same amount of momentum. Positioning in the north must be exploited with a quick breakthrough for improved odds. One minor hindrance is the French retreat to POR.

Germany 7:2
Slight improvement as initiative was seized in the Russian front. Now comes the fun part of cracking through so many densely packed units. Like England, a swift breakthrough is needed to catch the leader.

Austria 1:1
The clear leader of the game remains in charge of his own fate with zero threats to his borders. Med conquest looks within reach, which will give Dee many many options.

Russia 5:1
Odds decline as the ploy to turn Germany fails and now has enemy units along her homeland's borders. The only quiet border is her south where Austria is busy attacking Italy and Turkey is all but dead. The Anglo-German alliance must be split ASAP for any chance.
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