The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

The champion of the fourth grand melee was Dee (Russia)

Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby Dave on Thu Jul 23, 2009 8:07 pm

I borrow 20 shares of Austria (W$160), putting me at W$483 cash on hand.

I buy 80 shares of Germany (W$480), leaving me with W$3 cash on hand.

I invite Dee to pull his 5 and my 3 Wevets Bucks to get as many W$0.50 burgers at McWevets.

(As always, let me know if I did any incorrect calculations so I can rectify it).
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby Kodi on Sat Jul 25, 2009 2:01 am

I sell all my shares and buy up the full amount in moi. Then I sell all my shares again, and buy all me again. Then... I sell all my shares and buy all Turkey. Then I want to sell all... And buy... as much as I can of Turkey Shares.

Oh, and sell everything I have then and invest all of the money in, say... Turkey.
-Kodi
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby wevets on Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:45 am

Trading on hold for the moment until I can catch up. Please no transactions until I post new prices.
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby David Yun on Wed Aug 05, 2009 11:29 pm

I guess this side game is derailed, what with the next turn about to resolve?
"I want me some glory hole." --Jerry Jones
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby wevets on Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:38 pm

Yeah - sorry - I'm feeling better and taking less naps, so I'll probably be able to restart once we resolve the Spring 1903 turn. Earlier I couldn't seem to stay awake long enough after resolving the turn to recalculate the prices. I blame the Percoset.
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby wevets on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:23 pm

Summer 1903 Prices in the Predictions Market Offered by the Bank of Wevets
Note that as the game goes on, price swings may get larger and larger...

Austrian victory
1 share = W$0
The collapse of Austria has ended its share value. Luckily for most people, only a couple shares of Austria were outstanding.

English victory
1 share = W$7
Huge speculator action on England drove down the price of this flagging empire.

French victory
1 share = W$9
Signs of confidence in French growth have spurred a moderate rise in the price of French shares.

German victory
1 share = W$12
High levels of purchasing on German shares from certain wealthy investors doubled the price!

Italian victory
1 share = W$17
As Italian growth increases the size and influence of its empire, the Italian stock price has risen to match.

Russian victory
1 share = W$17
For the first time in a long while, growing Russian fortunes have influenced its formerly stable share price to rise.

Turkish victory
1 share = W$10
Turkish prices fell as purchases did not match the volume needed to keep up with other stocks.
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby wevets on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:26 pm

Portfolio Value:

David Yun: W$2165
Kodi: W$84
Yino: W$111
Dan: W$104
Mike: W$114
steve: W$161
Zeke: W$181
weather wizard: W$214
Dave: W$963


Also note - I had forgotten that when you short a stock, you must do so for one week - meaning it's a bet not just that the empire you're shorting will do poorly next turn, but that the empire you're shorting will do poorly *two turns* from now. Sorry about being sloppy in that respect.
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby David Yun on Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:34 pm

When you short, can't you repay the shares before the due date?
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby wevets on Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:33 pm

David Yun wrote:When you short, can't you repay the shares before the due date?


The original idea was that to short, some risk is involved - the risk that the country you're shorting would be in worse shape two turns into the future instead of just one (which is often pretty easy to predict.)

Unfortunately, I haven't been very consistent about keeping track of that part. :oops:
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Re: The Predictions Market - Win the Game within the Game!

Postby David Yun on Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:44 pm

Okay, then am I able to repay the shares or no?

If yes, I liquidate everything into cash and repay my debts.
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