Draft Picks

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Draft Picks

Postby David Yun on Wed Aug 08, 2012 3:23 pm

001 Vargas - Aaron Rodgers
002 Kang - Arian Foster
003 Mike - LeSean McCoy
004 Joel - Drew Brees
005 Paul - Ray Rice
006 Alex - Tom Brady
007 James - Maurice Jones-Drew
008 Dee - Calvin Johnson

009 Dee - Rob Gronkowski
010 James - Chris Johnson
011 Alex - Adrian Peterson
012 Paul - Wes Welker
013 Joel - Jimmy Graham
014 Mike - Matthew Stafford
015 Kang - Larry Fitzgerald
016 Vargas - Michael Turner

017 Vargas - Marshawn Lynch
018 Kang - Greg Jennings
019 Mike - Darren Sproles
020 Joel - Victor Cruz
021 Paul - A.J. Green
022 Alex - Matt Forte
023 James - Andre Johnson
024 Dee - Cam Newton

025 Dee - Darren McFadden
026 James - Roddy White
027 Alex - Mike Wallace
028 Paul - Peyton Manning
029 Joel - Jordy Nelson
030 Mike - Julio Jones
031 Kang - DeMarco Murray
032 Vargas - Percy Harvin

033 Vargas - Steve Smith
034 Kang - Hakeem Nicks
035 Mike - Vincent Jackson
036 Joel - Trent Richardson
037 Paul - Reggie Bush
038 Alex - Marques Colston
039 James - Jamaal Charles
040 Dee - Steven Jackson

041 Dee - Ahmad Bradshaw
042 James - Eli Manning
043 Alex - Aaron Hernandez
044 Paul - Dez Bryant
045 Joel - Frank Gore
046 Mike - Vernon Davis
047 Kang - Fred Jackson
048 Vargas - Jason Witten

049 Vargas - Brandon Marshall
050 Kang - Michael Vick
051 Mike - Antonio Gates
052 Joel - Doug Martin
053 Paul - Andrew Luck
054 Alex - Michael Bush
055 James - Brandon Lloyd
056 Dee - Demaryius Thomas

057 Dee - Ryan Mathews
058 James - Willis McGahee
059 Alex - Eric Decker
060 Paul - Jacob Tamme
061 Joel - Kevin Smith
062 Mike - Matt Ryan
063 Kang - Stevan Ridley
064 Vargas - Shonn Greene

065 Vargas - Dwayne Bowe
066 Kang - Jermichael Finley
067 Mike - Miles Austin
068 Joel - Antonio Brown
069 Paul - Denarius Moore
070 Alex - Beanie Wells
071 James - Tony Romo
072 Dee - Steve Johnson

073 Dee - Jeremy Maclin
074 James - DeSean Jackson
075 Alex - Robert Griffin III
076 Paul - BenJarvus Green-Ellis
077 Joel - Mario Manningham
078 Mike - C.J. Spiller
079 Kang - Titus Young
080 Vargas - Ben Roethlisberger

081 Vargas - Roy Helu
082 Kang - Philip Rivers
083 Mike - Stephen Gostkowski
084 Joel - Cedric Benson
085 Paul - Isaac Redman
086 Alex - Pierre Garcon
087 James - Tony Gonzalez
088 Dee - 49ers D/ST

089 Dee - David Akers
090 James - Texans D/ST
091 Alex - Eagles D/ST
092 Paul - Jared Cook
093 Joel - Bears D/ST
094 Mike - Ravens D/ST
095 Kang - Seahawks D/ST
096 Vargas - Jets D/ST

097 Vargas - Lions D/ST
098 Kang - Mason Crosby
099 Mike - Nate Washington
100 Joel - Sebastian Janikowski
101 Paul - Garrett Hartley
102 Alex - Matt Bryant
103 James - Dan Bailey
104 Dee - Torrey Smith

105 Dee - Steelers D/ST
106 James - Falcons D/ST
107 Alex - Packers D/ST
108 Paul - Bills D/ST
109 Joel - Peyton Hillis
110 Mike - Cowboys D/ST
111 Kang - Tim Tebow
112 Vargas - Rob Bironas
"I want me some glory hole." --Jerry Jones
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Round 1 Analysis

Postby David Yun on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:52 pm

Keep in mind that these are purely MY reasoned opinions. Accurately valuing future performance is like monkeys throwing poop at stock market selections. There are no end of variables like injuries, contracts, staff, arrests etc. that change fantasy football fates. Nonetheless, if you want an explanation of some of my guiding principles, you can find them below this comic.

001 Vargas - Aaron Rodgers
Even the ELITE Rodgers should have gone #4 at the earliest. Dave passed up on all three ELITE running backs. The only reason I like this pick at all, is that we'll be rolling a keeper league if we play every year, and he'll have value for several years to come. Still, this is the only kickass player with zero question marks, so it's not a terrible pick by any means.

002 Kang - Arian Foster
The consensus #1 pick on most draft boards, and one of three ELITE running backs. Obvious pick.

003 Mike - LeSean McCoy
Another of those three ELITE RBs. I might've gone Ray Rice ahead of McCoy (even McCoy says he'd draft Rice ahead of himself), but that's splitting the finest of hairs. As I write this, I'm starting to hate these lucky bastards that drafted first.

004 Joel - Drew Brees
Did the same thing as Vargas, in selecting an ELITE QB over an ELITE RB. Brees will produce, but Joel left the more valuable Ray Rice on the table.

005 Paul - Ray Rice
The final remaining ELITE running back. Absolutely the right choice.

006 Alex - Tom Brady
Alex took the last remaining elite QB, so it's a solid pick. I think there was a better one though, and will describe it below.

007 James - Maurice Jones-Drew
We did our draft before MJD's lockout turned UGLY. Taking the reigning rush leader at #7 would be defensible otherwise. He's a terrific fantasy producer, but not when he's not on the field. There's some talk about MJD asking for a trade, and management is giving him the coldest of shoulders. With this turn of events, #7 is way too high.

008 Dee - Calvin Johnson
I can't believe Megatron fell to me. I had him #4 on my draft board (and tried to trade my pick up to chase him). He should be somewhere in that range for you too, if you subscribe to VBD (VORP/WAR for sabermaticians). If you don't subscribe to this principle, you're saying math isn't real. Johnson so outpaces his peers, that just about every projection has the drop from him to the next WR as the single biggest gap between any two ordered players. He is the ELITE wide receiver, and this extreme scarcity (1) makes him more valuable than all but the top three RBs.
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Round 2 Analysis

Postby David Yun on Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:43 pm

009 Dee - Rob Gronkowski
Ugh. I hated this pick. The only ELITE players left were two tight ends. I had those two TEs listed at 14/15 on my draft board, so I overpaid according to my own valuation at #9. Plus, I desperately wanted a solid RB corp, and I knew I had to pass on Chris Johnson and Matt Forte by picking Gronk. It's just that the drop off from the ELITE 3 RBs to those guys was so hard, I wasn't entirely happy with either of those guys at #9 either. In the end, I shrugged, told myself that I had the worst draft order, and went with my last shot at "tech" drafting another ELITE player. If Gronk plays up to reasonable expectation, it'll be like my opponent spotting me a touchdown against most opposing TEs. NOTE: If CJ turns out to be solid, I did James a massive favor.

010 James - Chris Johnson
I don't like this guy as a fantasy pick. Maybe it's because he murdered fantasy teams in recent years, but something in my gut refused to let me pick him. But that's all completely irrational on my part. He looks terrific in preseason, and all intel points to him having a big bounce back year. Everyone thinks he's a stud RB, which would make him extremely valuable if accurate.

011 Alex - Adrian Peterson
Wow. I personally think this is a reach at #11, but the idea is bold (my primary criticism of this pick is passing on the safer Forte to do it). AP is coming back from ACL and MCL tears, and was already running in the spring. The hesitation on my part comes from training camp reports that he's not making cuts, and NOBODY is allowed to touch him. A healthy Peterson would have been the #1 overall pick. If he rehabs cleanly, Alex will have a MASSIVE weapon in the playoffs. The question for drafters is whether AP's slow start will prevent them from MAKING their league playoffs. There is no "right" place to take this RB. You'll have to deeply consider your draft strategy when looking at him. (I play against Alex in Week 5, and I'm hoping AP isn't up to full speed by then.)

012 Paul - Wes Welker
Welker's a proven upper echelon WR, but Paul bought him high. Welker's maxed out his ceiling (no upside), and there were better available options. Remember, with the pass happy NFL, QBs and WRs are significantly inflated. Plus, he passed on Fitz!

013 Joel - Jimmy Graham
The last ELITE player. Graham's likely as good as Gronk, and Joel got him 4 picks later, right about where I valued him. RRGH. I hate my draft position.

014 Mike - Matthew Stafford
Like I mentioned, QBs are overvalued (soooo many options, especially for our 8 man league), so I personally would've let Stafford pass by. But it's not a poor pick. Stafford is going to rain bombs all season long, and I wouldn't be surprised if he reaches ELITE status.

015 Kang - Larry Fitzgerald
Two full orders of magnitude down from Megatron is this dude. And then another full echelon until the next wide receiver. Fitz puts up stupid numbers every season with castoffs throwing him the ball. He's the 2nd best WR in this draft, and STILL has upside if Skelton steps up his QB play (he has to beat Kolb for the job, and not beat himself once he's the starter). You're not supposed to be able to pair Fitz with Arian Foster. Lucky Kang.

016 Vargas - Michael Turner
Hate this pick at #16. Turner looked slow and old last season. He looks even older this preseason. Every time the Falcons play his backup Jacquizz Rodgers instead, it's like they suddenly turned up the film speed. He's also not much of a receiving back, so he has no added value there either. Turner is a starting running back and will grind out steady yards, which does have substantial value - just nowhere near #16 value.
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more coming

Postby David Yun on Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:44 pm

I think I'll do two rounds a day...
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby trebuchet on Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:16 am

Analyzing my gut post-draft, I think it went something like this in the final moments of round 2:

Elite QB to Elite WR vs.
Who? to Elite WR

Again, I THINK that's what was going on in there. Analyzing guts is tricky at best. Looking back I think I should have picked up Graham.
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby David Yun on Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:58 am

I would've been torn between Graham and Fitz, myself.

For WRs, there is "Megatron" class with Calvin Johnson as the only member. Trailing is a single elite-ish receiver: Larry Fitzgerald. And then a group of about seven interchangeable studs.

Welker produced over 12 fantasy points a game last year (albeit unevenly), and if he can replicate that, your pick was totally worth it. I just think you bought high, because he hit his ceiling with that career year, and he'll be extremely hard pressed to reproduce it.
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Round 3 Analysis

Postby David Yun on Sun Aug 26, 2012 8:08 am

017 Vargas - Marshawn Lynch
Clearly capable of producing strong fantasy numbers, but Lynch is radioactive. Trailing him are allegations/incidents involving a shooting, sexual assault, hit and run, weed, gun charges, theft, and most recently a DUI arrest. Because of the hilarious structure of the league's conduct rules, he'll probably manage to avoid a suspension. For now. But this is a guy who just got paid. With cash in his pocket, what are the odds he'll avoid trouble AND focus on RB production? #17 is too high for this talented head case.

018 Kang - Greg Jennings
Not Matt Forte? Jennings is one of numerous roughly equivalent stand-out WRs still available at this point. Kang's a cheese head, and there's nothing wrong with this homer choice of a WR.

019 Mike - Darren Sproles
Ooh. Weird pick. I love Sproles, because he's crazy fun to watch. He's the primary example of the new breed of "space" players designed to screw with standard defensive schemes. But that doesn't necessarily turn into fantasy production. Sproles just doesn't get enough touches/carries to justify a #19 pick. If we were playing PPR, his receptions would make him much more valuable, but in our standard league, I think Mike grossly overpaid.

020 Joel - Victor Cruz
Still not Matt Forte? Cruz is another of those stand-out WRs, but I personally have him trailing the pack. Defenses are now aware and will key on him, so he won't have that surprise factor going for him this season. And such a substantial amount of his points came off long broken touchdown plays (I think six?), that Cruz isn't likely to be able to repeat. Joel's a Giants fan, but he probably shouldn't have made a homer pick here.

021 Paul - A.J. Green
Man, you guys hate Matt Forte. Otherwise, I like this pick. Green has loads of ability and could be primed for a sophmore breakout, especially if his QB Dalton makes the leap with him. I personally have him near the top of that heap of stud WRs.

022 Alex - Matt Forte
WHUH? Alex gambled on AP and Forte STILL fell all the way down to him? Forte was the last available safe, upper-tier workhorse. If Peterson does get healthy, Alex is going to be a serious problem for the rest of our league. [Edit: lots of chatter about getting his backup Bush a large volume of carries - Forte's still solid. And should keep him fresh for your fantasy playoffs.]

023 James - Andre Johnson
Another of those stud WRs (see how deep the WR pool is?), and perhaps the most physically gifted of the bunch. He just has trouble staying healthy, but he's a brute when on the field. The trouble is, I think he's genuinely injury prone, as opposed to just unlucky. His repeated leg injuries suggest future cascading injuries. I would've gone with a different WR, but Johnson does belong in the conversation here because of his huge potential.

024 Dee - Cam Newton
Why was he still available? I wasn't planning on drafting Cam. I guess everyone else had the same idea. I wanted to stock up on RBs and snag Matt Ryan down the line. Cam's the most controversial QB to project, but his value is likely MUCH higher than a #24 pick. Everyone agrees that he probably won't reproduce last year's crazy rushing performance (this contributed to him being as valuable as Tom Brady!), but something in the range of 400 yards and 6 or 7 rushing TDs is reasonable. He should also grow as a passer (yeah, his hot rookie start was fluky), so despite analyst worries that he might be a fraud, I feel really good about taking him at #24. I'm not entirely sure yet, but I think I seriously stole him this low in the draft.
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby trebuchet on Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:52 am

My gut was screaming "WIDEOUT!!!" at me for some reason. I was going to pick Forte but I made a last second impulse switch this round. Weird.

About Cam: historically no QB with his kind of skill set has ever repeated that kind of performance. I think that makes him too costly at #24 for me. I just figured you knew something about him that I didn't at the time.
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby David Yun on Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:58 am

AJ is great; I wrote as much. Maybe your gut knows something we don't on top of that, like Dalton becoming the next Rodgers and AJ learning to levitate :D

Cam's all over the place. He's going first round in some drafts, with some even arguing he should be the first QB taken. That seems WILDLY optimistic. His ADP position is 14th overall at 16.0, with a slight upward trend on ESPN drafts, as I write this. I'd be bearish at that price too.

"Historically no QB with his kind of skill set has ever repeated that kind of performance." Scouting reports say that repeatedly, but also with this rejoinder: "There's never been a QB 6'5" and 250lbs." (Not really true, but none of them have been as physically gifted as Cam.)

I think my guess at his rushing projection is safe. That added to steady improvement from the less ridiculous, latter half of the season throwing preformances...I can TOTALLY live with that kind of production at #24. I feel that that range is near his floor, and any upside is totally gravy.

I will say though that if I didn't also have the #25 pick, I would've passed up on him for Darren McFadden.
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby David Yun on Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:33 am

I've been stuck on this: "Historically no QB with his kind of skill set has ever repeated that kind of performance."

There HAS been no QB with his kind of skill set. Historically. I think the closest you get is Dante Culpepper, but Cam's rookie season blew away every campaign in Dante's career, except for his 2004 season (which is clearly a statistical outlier).

I dunno. Nobody does. But he's a monster. I was planning to skip him. I didn't even consider the possibility that Cam would drop to the mid 20s.
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