Draft Picks

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Round 4 Analysis

Postby David Yun on Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:34 am

025 Dee - Darren McFadden
Stole him. He (and Forte) should've gone waaaaaay higher. I don't believe he's actually injury PRONE; he's just unlucky. He doesn't really have any predictors of future injury, aside from...well, scattershot (unrelated) past injuries. If he does stay on the field, he's first round material.

026 James - Roddy White
Another stud WR, near the best of them due to his consistency. Julio Jones is gonna steal targets away from him this season, but he's still terrific.

027 Alex - Mike Wallace
Great, explosive receiver, but missed most of camp due to holding out. Alex was guessing on the holdout period at the time of our draft, but it kept dragging for a long time. Bad sign.

028 Paul - Peyton Manning
I thought Paul was crazy. You take Peyton and add injury concerns with weakened arm strength, you get...Chad Pennington. Then toss him into a new team/city/routine and even worse, outdoors. I was thinking his numbers would be WAY down. Turns out, his arm strength is recovering pretty well. He could hit out routes with sufficient authority in preseason, but was wobbly and inaccurate (for him) on deep strikes. So his numbers should be MODERATELY down. I still think Paul was crazy, in the sense that even if he liked Peyton, he could've gotten him later. Maybe he thought someone ELSE was crazy too, and wanted to preemptively drop HIS crazy first. I've changed my mind from predraft- Peyton looks like he'll be perfectly serviceable, but Paul crazy overpaid at #28 (even if Peyton hits every upside, just because he could've have been had later.)

029 Joel - Jordy Nelson
Another stud WR. SOOOO many of them.

030 Mike - Julio Jones
SOOOOOOOOO many of them! He's one of my favorites. He's so physically dynamic; tough to predict a breakout season with Roddy lining up on the other side, but it wouldn't surprise either.

031 Kang - DeMarco Murray
Finally a non-crazy, non-WR pick. I'm glad I didn't have to pick him, but he's a "top rated" RB. He is awesome when he gets it going. He bothers me though, because of his upright running style. Every time someone hits him SQUARE, I think he's going to hurt something. And since our draft, both Cowboys wideouts got dinged, Witten broke his SPLEEN, and their O-line looks worse and worse. Kang's selection is valid even still (stock up on playable RBs!), but I would've personally cringed as I drafted him.

032 Vargas - Percy Harvin
Another great receiver. He's the first WR of our draft that I don't consider a STUD though, because Minny's offense is so horrid. He would get a bump up though, if you think AP is back for real. (At #32, we're finally out of STUD wideouts. But the next batch starting with Percy is just about as good. The position is so stupid deep.)
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Round 5 Analysis

Postby David Yun on Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:37 am

033 Vargas - Steve Smith
Great, REALLY great in his prime, but creeping toward retirement age. Playing with Cam rejuvenated him, and there's no reason to expect significant dropoff in production. Since our draft, he's been dealing with a non-injury injury: infected foot. Steady dosage of antibiotics, and he should be good to go.

034 Kang - Hakeem Nicks
I guess the foot feels good. Healthy, he's probably better than #34. He might even be a stud. Worthwhile for his upside.

035 Mike - Vincent Jackson
Jackson's good, but Tampa is TERRRRIBLE. I don't like this pick because there are still plenty of more likely WRs to target.

036 Joel - Trent Richardson
My initial reaction was negative surprise. A rookie RB on Cleveland with ZERO help from any other offensive players? I started thinking, "Man, even with 30 carries X 3 yards per carry....wait, that's not terrible production." I still don't like this pick, because there were a few better established options, and Richardson is recovering from from two knee scopings (why did he need two, and why is his recovery so elongated?).

037 Paul - Reggie Bush
Bush proved he can be a productive RB in the NFL. I just hate his inconsistency. He has something of that home run swing in his game, so he could win you your matchup by dropping 20. Or lose it for you by offering 2. I would've gone in a different direction, because that shiz drives me crazy. But as an RB2 behind Rice anchoring the position, it could work out.

038 Alex - Marques Colston
Any active New Orleans receiver is good. Colston is good.

039 James - Jamaal Charles
Charles should've gone MUCH earlier. The ACL is scaring people off, but with so few viable RB options, he's worth the gamble (even with Hillis taking red zone carries).

040 Dee - Steven Jackson
I'm happy Jackson was still available. The Rams are terrible, but he's going for his 8th straight thousand yard season. He showed up to camp in mid-season shape, and I think he's motivated to make a bid for the Hall of Fame. He knows he's not going to be winning, but he might be looking at the career rushing marks (he could crack the top 25 this season).
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Round 6 Analysis

Postby David Yun on Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:40 am

041 Dee - Ahmad Bradshaw
This was the wrong choice. Mathews was still available and I gambled the others wouldn't take him. (I was right, but I shouldn't have been.) And I should have taken Fred Jackson before Bradshaw. Still, Bradshaw does have strong TD potential, so that helps me feel a little better. We're rapidly running out of three down backs, and if his meaningless preseason hand injury causes him to drop in your draft, there's value here.

042 James - Eli Manning
James waited on a QB to stock RBs, and went with the safe play. Vick is more exciting, but terrifying from an injury risk standpoint. Romo is more consistent, but then you have to deal with the stigma of having Romo. I personally would have gone with Matt Ryan, but Eli is a perfectly justifiable choice here.

043 Alex - Aaron Hernandez
Lots of upside here. I'm going to be slamming my head on my keyboard if he outproduces Gronk, the Hernandez teammate TE I skipped taking Chris Johnson for. A cagey gamble at #43 that Hernandez will BREAKOUT this season.

044 Paul - Dez Bryant
He's volatile off the field. He has babysitters now, but that didn't help Pacman Jones (who got into a fight with his security). Dez is also hampered by injuries: a strained hamstring and a sore knee. But he's amazing. Lots of risk, lots of potential reward.

045 Joel - Frank Gore
I would say avoid Gore, unless you need RB depth. He's my least favorite of the true RB starters (being first on a depth chart of RB by committee does not make a guy a true starter).

046 Mike - Vernon Davis
One of the better non-elite TEs, but picking a non-elite TE this high seems iffy to me.

047 Kang - Fred Jackson
Terrific pick. Before breaking his leg in week 11, Jackson was in the top-five range for RBs. He should've gone WAY earlier in our draft.

048 Vargas - Jason Witten
Same comment as Vernon Davis; too early for a TE of this caliber (not a dig at Witten or Davis at all).
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby trebuchet on Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:14 am

Man, I had my sites on McFadden then you texted me and I was like, "Oh shit! What do I say? If I say 'no' Dee'll know I want him but if I say 'yes' he might actually draft him!" And then you drafted him while I was writing my text back to you.
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby David Yun on Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:59 am

I can hear your gut through the cosmos.
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Re: Draft Picks

Postby trebuchet on Sat Sep 01, 2012 4:21 am

ROFL :lol:
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Wrapup

Postby David Yun on Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:33 pm

Season starts tomorrow! I'm just going to skip the later rounds and talk up team analysis:

Dee's J-E-S-T
Huge upsides with lots of question marks, starting with Cam Newton. Is he a fraud, or will he develop into a perennial MVP candidate? My roster is 4 deep in 3 down RBs (a sweet, sweet luxury), but they all have significant injury histories (not necessarily injury prone though). After a couple of trades, I'm confident I have the best receiving corps, including TE Gronkowski, and anchored by megastud Megatron. My biggest problem will be game day decisions, with so many options (I am legend at choosing the wrong guys to start). Barring a combination of Cam playing to his floor and MULTIPLE injuries, I feel good about making the playoffs. Also, have I mentioned I hate drafting last?

Joel's Clown Car
Joel's packing Drew Brees and some great receivers, but he's relying on a duo of rookie running backs. His bench is loaded with borderline value running backs, and he's likely to stress week in and week out about who, if any, will be able to produce meaningful fantasy points. He needs to find creative solutions for this problem to keep his team in the running.

Kang's Cheeseheads
Ack. He's loaded with one of the elite RBs, plus 2 stud RBs (why didn't I take Fred Jackson?!). Kang also sports three stud receivers. The one thing that could trip him up is Vick losing major time to injury. Even then, there's the chance Rivers could have a bounce back year. If I had to lay a line, I'd favor him to take this thing.

Vargas' Ponies
Aaron Rodgers and a whole lot of serviceable guys. His two RBs have question marks, and Vargas doesn't have any genuine alternatives if either of them have problems. It's hard to project a vanilla team like this, but without much in the way of upside, I don't think our players are going to be afraid the weeks they face "Football is Magic".

James' Bitchin' Badgers
The core are the four playable RBs (I'm going to agonize about selecting Gronk over Chris Johnson all season). James doesn't have a single ELITE player, but he's got a deep bench, and much like the honey badger, James' strength will lie in "not givin' a fuck" and outlasting other teams' injuries. If Andre Johnson stays healthy, he could be in this thing.

Paul's Trebuchets
He needs Ray Rice to play every available game. The drop off after him is huge on this roster, and a key injury there would all but end his season. He wasted a pick on a second TE, making his bench uncomfortably thin. I also wonder if Luck will push a QB controversy if Peyton struggles (Peyton does look better than expected, however). Paul does have excellent receivers, and the Reggie Bush wildcard gives him an upside that could steal some dramatic wins over the season. Overall though, the Trebuchets don't look like a consistent powerhouse. Paul drafted with his gut, and perhaps it knows certainties that I see as murky possibilities.

Mike's KoreaKillers
Mike's #1s of Stafford, McCoy, and Julio looks like the best core trio of all our teams, which should keep him in many games. However, his bench is the shoddiest of our league. The one asset there is Matt Ryan, but he can only play one QB at a time. And is he actually going to flex a TE?

Alex's Gorillaz
Alex's draft strategy comes down to Adrian Peterson. Brady and Forte anchor the Gorillaz, but their success relies on AP returning to form quickly. I can't take Beanie Wells seriously as a frontline starter, and his only other RB is Michael Bush, Forte's handcuff. Alex has meaningful upside, particularly if AP can indeed recover from his catastrophic knee injury. However, he may end up giving away too many games early to be competitive. (Darn it, I don't face him until week 5.)
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